Australian Dollar May Continue Lower if US Data Fuels Risk Aversion
Talking Points:
- US Dollar Aims to Extend Gains as Data Fuels Fed Tightening Speculation
- Australian Dollar Underperformed Amid Risk Aversion in Overnight Trade
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to US news-flow. Retail Sales are expected to have added 0.6 percent in August, marking the largest increase in four months. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge is forecast to show the strongest sentiment reading since April.
The trend in US economic data in the weeks leading up to Augusts’ disappointing jobs report was decidedly rosy. Chatter around the news-wires was dismissive of the soft payrolls outcome, chalking it up to a flukethat would be revised away in subsequent releases rather than a real turning point for US economic performance.
If that narrative finds support in upbeat results on today’s outcomes, that may fuel bets on a relatively sooner onset of policy tightening from the Federal Reserve. This has potential to undermine risk appetite considering the formative role of Fed stimulus in elevating sentiment in recent years. Such a scenario is likely to generate gains for the US Dollar while applying particularly strong selling pressure to commodity-bloc currencies.
The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. Risk aversion appeared to be the driving catalyst behind the move. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index traded lower and S&P 500 futures faced selling pressure, eroding demand for the sentiment-sensitive Australian unit. We remain short AUDUSD.
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Asia Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
22:30 |
NZD |
Business NZ Perf of Mfg Index (AUG) |
56.5 |
- |
53.5 |
|
22:45 |
NZD |
Food Prices (MoM) (AUG) |
0.3% |
- |
-0.7% |
|
23:13 |
NZD |
REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (AUG) |
1.1% |
- |
-0.7% |
|
23:13 |
NZD |
REINZ House Sales (YoY) (AUG) |
-16.3% |
- |
-13.0% |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Credit Card Balances (A$) (JUL) |
49.4B |
- |
49.9B |
|
1:30 |
AUD |
Credit Card Purchases (A$)(JUL) |
23.4B |
- |
23.1B |
|
2:02 |
CNY |
New Yuan Loans (AUG) |
702.5B |
700.0B |
385.2B |
|
2:02 |
CNY |
Aggregate Financing (RMB) (AUG) |
957.4B |
1135.0B |
273.1B |
|
2:02 |
CNY |
Money Supply M2 (YoY) (AUG) |
12.8% |
13.5% |
13.5% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL F) |
0.4% |
- |
0.2% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL F) |
-0.7% |
- |
-0.9% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JUL) |
-0.8% |
- |
-3.3% |
European Session
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP/ACT |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (AUG) |
-0.2% (A) |
0.1% |
Medium |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (AUG) |
-0.6% (A) |
0.5% |
Medium |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction Output SA (YoY) (JUL) |
3.2% |
5.3% |
Low |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Construction Output SA (MoM) (JUL) |
0.6% |
1.2% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) |
0.7% |
-0.3% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) |
1.4% |
0.0% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (2Q) |
- |
0.1% |
Low |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
Eurozone Employment (YoY) (2Q) |
- |
0.2% |
Low |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
Supp 3 |
Supp 2 |
Supp 1 |
Pivot Point |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
Res 3 |
|
EURUSD |
1.2815 |
1.2870 |
1.2897 |
1.2925 |
1.2952 |
1.2980 |
1.3035 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.6067 |
1.6152 |
1.6204 |
1.6237 |
1.6289 |
1.6322 |
1.6407 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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